Tri Viet “aims to be a center of academic and pedagogic excellence in Viet Nam. First, by striving for maximum academic autonomy as a sine qua non of educational quality. Second, by promoting transdisciplinary approaches based on foundational knowledge and skills (traditionally known in Western institutions as Liberal Arts and Sciences) subjects (e.g., Critical Thinking, Creative Writing, Problem Solving, etc); concurrently, fundamentals of Vietnamese Studies will help anchor the Vietnamese students’ awareness of their roots and identity as they embark on discovering the world. Tri Viet is convinced these initiatives will help equip its graduates with the right kind of intellect, one balancing specialization with an all-around humanistic education.”

Mr. Do Ngoc is working closely with the founders of the university to move the project forward and plan for the financial and social success of the project.

Olivier will be speaking on the second day of the conference, which runs from October 27th – 28th at the New World Hotel in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

The 4th Alternative Investments Vietnam Conference will bring together industry leaders to uncover new investment opportunities and identify proven strategies to maximize investment returns in Vietnam. For more information or to buy tickets for the event go to the Alternative Investments Vietnam website.

Olivier will be speaking on the second day of the conference, which runs from June 8th – 9th at the Park Hyatt Hotel in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

The Vietnam Investment Summit brings together industry leaders from Vietnam and throughout the region. For more information see the conference website or the Vietnam Investment Summit 2010 Brochure.

Q. What is your biggest challenge this year and how are you meeting it?

A. The changing global and regional landscape for property investors highlighted by the increased participation of domestic players in the Vietnamese property market. The local market is transforming as the increased presence of local developers, investors and retail buyers is taking significant market share from foreign competitors. By bringing international expertise to cater to the growing local demand we can offer a unique product in the Vietnamese market.

Q. What do you see as the biggest opportunity on the horizon?

The Vietnamese population is projected to grow by more than 30 million to 120 million before 2030. The population growth coupled with growing levels of personal wealth means that demand for the already supply constrained middle-income residential housing segment will continue to grow. For similar reasons, private equity investments, healthcare and education are also extremely attractive.

Q. To what extent do you think regional and international confidence is returning to the real estate market?

Over the last 18 months appetite for Vietnam has steadily increased although it has not reached the levels seen at the peak in 2007. Vietnam has had one of the better performing economies throughout Asia and the world, both before and after the credit crisis. Local developers have started moving forward with more and more projects throughout the country signaling that internal confidence of the recovery is underway. For international investors Vietnam provides an exciting alternative to adding additional exposure in China or India.

Q. Where in Asia would you invest $100m tomorrow?

In Vietnam of course! I would allocate the money to a portfolio of residential developments and private equity investments. The residential would be comprised of 10 – 20 middle-income projects in Southern Vietnam with a 3 – 5 year return horizon. The private equity investments would focus on healthcare and education as well as select infrastructure projects with a 5 – 10 year return horizon.

For more information visit the conference website or download the City Scape Asia-Conf Brochure

Welcoming Finance and Property Industry Leaders – MIPIM Asia 2009 Kicked Start Today, Event Highlight of Today and Tomorrow

HONG KONG — MIPIM Asia 2009 announced its opening in the Convention and Exhibition Centre today. Industry leaders from finance and property sectors have joined the opening day of the 3-day event.

MIPIM Asia 2009 kicked off with an Opening Ceremony this morning, inaugurated by Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary John Tsang and CEO of Reed MIDEM Paul Zilk. The Financial Secretary said, “As Asian’s world city, we have well-structured legal system and related settings which allow us to perform as a major business hub in the region. We are much honored that MIPIM Asia has again chosen Hong Kong as the venue of the marketplace. We believe the presence of MIPIM Asia brings along good opportunities both to Hong Kong and to the entire region.”

Leaders of the local finance and property industry joined MIPIM Asia 2009 today, featuring Professor Fan Gang, Director, National Economic Research Institute (NERI – China), Mr. Chun Ying Leung, Chairman, DTZ Asia Pacific and Louis Armstrong, CEO, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors as speakers and moderators of forums. Ms. Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, JP, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Development, attended the third edition of the MIPIM Asia Awards as Guest of Honour. The award is designed to recognize outstanding real estate projects in the Asia Pacific region for their innovative, technical, environmental and architectural qualities. Awards fall into 10 difference categories, including “Business Centres”, “Green Buildings”, “Futura Projects” etc. China, the Country of Honour of MIPIM Asia 2009, has dominated the Awards, scooping up 4 awards out of the 10 categories. The Shanghai World Financial Center has won the “Best Chinese Project” category and “Mixed-use Buildings” category. Other countries like Singapore and South Korea has gained recognition in the remaining categories.

MIPIM Asia 2009 will continue with its major events on Thursday and Friday, featuring more renowned industry leaders:

19 November, 2009 (Thursday)

11.00 – RICS Global Commercial Property Agora, Hall 1 11.45 Survey Q3 2009 Announcement Speaker(s): – Louis ARMSTRONG (CEO, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) : – Albert So(Chairman of RICS Hong Kong) – David Tse(International Governor of RICS)

11.00 – What’s the outlook of South East Asia as Pearl, Hall 1 12.00 destination for foreign real estate investment? Speaker(s): – Christopher FOSSICK (Managing Director , South East Asia, Jones Lang LaSalle) : – Justin Chiu(Executive Director, Cheung Kong Holding Ltd) – Marc BOEY (Group Director, Land Sales & Administration, Urban Redevelopment Authority, Singapore) - Olivier Do NGOC (Managing Partner, Dynasty Investments, Vietnam) - William WILFONG (CEO, Golden Land Property Development PLC, Thailand)

16.00 – HKIS – “Hong Kong Forum – Real Estate Pearl, Hall 1 17.00 Financing in Greater China: Trend and Change” Speaker(s): – Stephen JONES (Regional Managing Principal, Woods Bagot); : – Charles LAM (Managing Director – North Asia (ex-Japan), Pramerica Real Estate Investors); – Richard HO (Partner, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu) – Andrew TAYLOR (CEO, Macquarie Wanda Real Estate Fund (MWREF))

17.15 – Foreign Direct Investment in China Pearl, Hall 1 18.15 Speaker(s): – Steve WILLIAMS (Real Capital Analytics) : – Li LI (ISG Capital Management) – Jinqin LIU (Xi’an Economic & Technologh Development Zone) – Xiangyu NI (TEDA Administrative Commission China) – Andrew WEIR (KPMG China)

20 November, 2009 (Friday)

09.30 – Urban Regeneration – The City in 2050 Pearl, Hall 1 10.30 Speaker(s): – Nicholas BROOKE (Chairman, Professional Property Services Group) : – Barry C. CHEUNG (Chairman, Urban Renewal Authority) – Keith GRIFFITHS (Chairman, Aedas, HK) – Richard PRICE (CEO, ING Real Estate Investment Management Asia, HK)

11.00 – Meet the Chairman Pearl, Hall 1 12.00 Speaker(s): – Chun Ying Leung (Chairman, DTZ Asia Pacific) : – Ronnie C. Chan(Chairman, Hang Lung Properties Ltd.) – Horst GEICKE (Chairman, VinaCapital Group) – Jonathan THOMPSON (International Chairman Real Estate, Building and Construction Practice, KPMG) – Goodwin GAW (Chairman, Gaw Capital Partners)

11.30 – MIPIM ASIA 2009 Overview Agora, Hall 1 12.30 Speaker(s): – Nadine CASTAGNA (Director, MIPIM Asia)
.

ABOUT REED MIDEM

Founded in 1963, Reed MIDEM is a leading organiser of professional, international tradeshows. Reed MIDEM events have established themselves as key dates in professional diaries. The company hosts MIPTV, MIPDOC, MIPCOM, and MIPJUNIOR for the television and digital content industries, MIDEM for music professionals, MIPIM, MIPIM Asia, MIPIM Horizons and MAPIC for the property and retail real estate sectors.

Reed Exhibitions is the world’s leading events organiser, with over 470 events in 37 countries. In 2008 Reed brought together over seven million industry professionals from around the world generating billions of dollars in business. Today Reed events are held throughout the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific, and organised by 38 fully staffed offices.

Vietnam: a V-shaped recovery ahead
by Olivier Do Ngoc and Maxwell Federbush, Dynasty Investments

How has the reality of the post-September 2008 world economy impacted Vietnam’s young, market-oriented economy, and will Vietnam’s recovery be ‘V-shaped’ and outperform the Western industrialised nations as well as its Southeast Asian neighbours?

As the 19th Century British Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli, once said, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics”. In order to get a true sense of how Vietnam is fairing, it is necessary to actually examine the economic statistics and put them into
context. In doing so, it will become clear as to how government policies and fiscal stimulus, strong domestic growth and international interest are all contributing to
Vietnam’s V-shaped economic recovery.

Despite what appears to be weak economic data in the first half of 2009, Vietnam’s economic growth is actually very much intact – having experienced its Q2 2008 to
Q3 2008 mini balance of payments crisis and the world economic crisis as a mere bump in the road, with continued economic resurgence likely in the coming months and years. Indeed, unlike the expected continued stagnation of the developed world’s economic growth, Vietnam’s command-style economy is starting to show
positive recovery signs.

Vietnam appeared to start 2009 in the doldrums – its young fragile economy seemingly wrecked by the burst of the world’s economic bubble. Foreign direct investment (FDI) was down 80%. The Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange VN-Index was down to 235 in February 2009 – almost 1,000 points from its 2007 historic high. Residential real estate sale prices were down 40% in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. January-to-July 2009 exports were down 10% and international tourist arrivals were down 19%, with GDP growth slashed from 6.5% in 2008 to a projected 3.9% for 2009.

Although these statistics seem to mark the end of Vietnam’s rapid economic growth, it is important to remember that these numbers are compared to the breakneck growth statistics of 2008, which were somewhat of an anomaly. The 2009 results to-date actually not only show a strong recovery in many sectors, but also show a very favourable trend when compared to the 2006 to 2007 period, in line with a more sustainable and realistic long-term growth expectation for Vietnam.

Domestic demand and the economy
Over-leveraging and mortgage shenanigans have not changed the basic fundamentals of Vietnam’s domestic situation in terms of demographics and market emergence. Vietnam still has a young and motivated population of 86 million, whose personal wealth and spending are on the rise. The Vietnamese are investing in the local stock market, manufacturing goods for the local and world community, buying consumer goods and services, and buying into the abundant real estate opportunities throughout the country.

One of the main factors fuelling the economy forward is personal consumption. There are few other places in the world where personal consumption is up 20% year-on-year (yoy) for the first half of 2009, spurred by aggressive government fiscal and social stimulus implemented in January 2009, which included tax cuts, interest rate subsidies and increased lending through state-owned banks. In addition, domestic industrial production rebounded with a positive 10.6% growth year-on-year in August 2009. A domestic-led recovery, much like the one China is experiencing, has also been helped by a general sense of local optimism about Vietnam’s future – a feeling of economic hopefulness that, around the world, is in short supply. The strength of domestic demand is certainly in contrast to the current shortfall in aggregate demand of consumers and companies that many Western economies
or heavily export-dependent countries are experiencing. The WTO-driven easing of restrictions on foreign retail and distribution is also notable, as the opening of Vietnam’s market to more outside market forces and products has added to the positive drivers of recovery.

The stock market has recovered to its current mid-500 range. This resurgence is mostly credited to domestic investors who see Vietnam’s recovery outweighing
international fears and, to some extent, the US$22bn stimulus lending to businesses leaking into the stock market. The recent listing of additional shares of the local bank giant, Vietcombank (the first major IPO of the year), and the expected listing of Eximbank and another 47 companies, are seen as positive signs of recovery in the stock market. Likewise, increased transparency and governance should mean more sustainable growth in an asset class still very sensitive to short-term speculation
and inflated prices.

Stock market rallies in Vietnam are typically followed by rallies in the real estate market as local investors recycle their gains once they estimate valuations have peaked. So it comes as no surprise to see a rebound occurring in the real estate market as well – again with some leakage from government stimulus-related corporate lending facilities. Unlike the 2007 explosion in the real estate market, which was very largely speculation-driven, this rally has been much more moderate. Actual real pent-up demand in the system for improved housing appears to be driving the market and real-need buyers have been flocking to recently-launched residential projects throughout the country, including beach-front holiday homes. The hospitality, residential and retail sectors will, thus, continue to have the most potential for sustained long-term growth, with Vietnam’s population growing in numbers and wealth, and urbanising at a rapid rate – presages a real need for housing, vacation destinations and shopping outlets.

Meanwhile, in the already supply-constrained retail market, with the easing of restrictions on foreign participation, the lack of available space will only intensify.
Just compare the HCMC retail market which has only 429,402 square metres of space for a population of 11 million, to a city like Manila which has 4.69 million square metres for 11.5 million people, and it is easy to see exactly how small and how much potential this segment has.

International influences and impact
A global crisis of the degree we have witnessed in the last year means that slower GDP growth across the globe is somewhat of a foregone conclusion. Thus, the real test is to what extent that slowdown manifests in each economy, and whether that economy goes into a negative-growth recession or merely slows an already rapid pace. In Vietnam’s case, it is definitely the latter and, in fact, it has already seen an uptick from its lower growth, rising to 4.5% yoy in Q2 2009, up from 3.1% in Q1 2009, with even higher estimates for the second half of the year. If anything underscores the resilience and potential of Vietnam, this is certainly it.

Foreign direct investment numbers which, at first glance, appear so dismal, in reality, are telling a very different story. Committed FDI, indeed, has dropped by over 80% yoy, but the total committed FDI of US$10.4bn for the first eight months of 2009 is still on track to surpass 2006 (US$12bn) and encroach on 2007 (US$20bn) – as, historically, most large commitments tend to come in the last quarter of the year. More immediately relevant to the real economy, the disbursed FDI (money that has actually been spent and injected into the economy) of US$6.5bn through August still surpasses 2007’s US$4.6bn and much more absorbable by the domestic economy than 2008’s US$11.5bn, a significant contributing force to that year’s runaway inflation and asset price bubble. A more moderate FDI inflow, along with a cooling of credit expansion, is bringing financial flows back down to a level that Vietnam’s economy can more easily absorb.

At the same time, exports are still a drag on growth, having fallen 18.9% yoy in August. Exports have been up dramatically over the past few years and even though the recent figures compare negatively to 2008, they remain nearly 20% higher than in the first half of 2007. Also on the positive side, certain sectors like rice, clothing and electronic components are seeing positive growth. Concerted efforts to boost intra-regional trade with Vietnam’s neighbours, including new infrastructure and
connectivity but also relaxation of import procedures, have led to increased regional commerce, thus, partially compensating for a drop of exports to the US and Europe,
making Vietnam’s buoyant export sector less reliant on an economic recovery in the West. Vietnam is also starting to sign trade agreements with Middle Eastern, African and South American countries, creating new export opportunities for future growth. Even more importantly, we also see another positive development stemming from lower export figures in combination with increasing domestic spending. Lagging foreign demand for goods has forced many Vietnamese firms to tap into the local domestic market while, simultaneously, streamlining their operations and cost structures. Long term this will prove to be a crucial learning experience for these firms that had previously only concentrated on foreign markets and low value-added production – as they are now realising the potential in having Southeast Asia’s third largest population as their own domestic base and the benefits of going up the production value chain with this impressive demographic.

Government policy
The Vietnamese government’s domestic stimulus package has been a key factor in reducing the impact of, and hastening the recovery from, the worldwide meltdown.
Because Vietnam’s economic reality check from the excesses of the world financial bubble came at the end of Q2 2008, when the rest of the world’s economy imploded
at the end of Q3 2008, Vietnam had already begun to apply discipline and inflation-cooling measures to its economy. Though unintentional in a way, the precautions, interventions and protections the government had already put in place not only provided the economy with a strengthened backbone to help resist the intense pressures of the global downturn, but also gave the economy a head start over countries that reacted only after the world economy declined. In addition, much like
China, its command-style centralised economy enabled the government to implement short-term stimulus measures very effectively, ordering domestic state-owned banks to facilitate lending, while also compelling local industrial state-owned enterprises to resume production ahead of a recovery in domestic demand.

The interest rate subsidy programme, personal income tax abatement and loosened monetary policy have been the cornerstones of the Vietnamese stimulus plan. Thanks to the stimulus plan, investment in basic construction and infrastructure from government spending is up 33%. This spending is crucial, as Vietnam’s infrastructure, unless improved, will hinder its longer-term progression towards
future development and higher levels of FDI. The stimulus plan has aided consumer confidence and has helped fuel the domestic market, whose importance we have already shown.

Industry-by-industry, new changes are making it easier and more appealing to do business in Vietnam. In the important real estate market, such changes include allowing qualified foreigners to buy real estate, establishing real estate trading floors to increase transparency, and simplifying property titles to avoid confusion over ownership. Similarly, effective changes extend across all parts of the economy, from stricter lending laws to giving the central bank more autonomy in its lending practices – Vietnam is aggressively instituting the changes necessary to allow the economy to run more smoothly. These changes yield growth opportunities across all industries – and are already contributing to the current V-shaped recovery.

Risks
One should keep in mind that there is a risk that the initial signs of economic recovery and the moderate rally in the stock and real estate markets morph into a run-away speculative buying binge – yielding artificial growth in the real estate sector or the stock market, like 2007 – with unrealistic asset prices. However, the
government is working to avoid another boom-bust cycle and many banks have upped their requirements for granting loans, even though, at times, relationships still trump economic realities. A prolonged global recession could also threaten Vietnam’s economic recovery as it is still reliant on FDI and portfolio inflows to finance its trade deficit. Along with asset inflation, real inflation is back with a 3.5% price increase August year-to-date, although far away from the September 2008 high of 27.9%. Clearly the domestic economy will continue to experience some modest price pressures and, as imports recover, interest rates will have to rise to keep inflation in line with sustainable economic growth. With the resurgence of inflation, we expect some moderate depreciation of the local currency. Even though reluctantly, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has sanctioned a widening of the USD/VND trading band and continues to privilege stability even though the grey currency and the NDF markets have already factored in a further devaluation of the currency. The SBV has kept the base rate at 7% for eight consecutive months to achieve the GDP growth target of over 5% in 2009, and control the inflation, and it remains on the watch for rising inflationary pressures.

Conclusion
Much like China’s turnaround, Vietnam’s recent economic growth numbers have shown a surprise on the upside. Vietnam, having rapidly and successfully pushed through its stimulus package, is likely to continue to outperform most economies in the world and in Asia. The current economic statistics and numbers are pointing to a more realistic growth. This is not to say that Vietnam will not stumble on the path of recovery in the coming months and years, as it still faces issues such as the downside risk in its capital allocation efficiency. But with a growing and motivated population, foreign interest in Vietnamese investments and goods, a government dedicated towards economic growth and reforms, and a rapidly growing and more influential private sector, Vietnam has a bright future. The V-shaped recovery is a reality – and Vietnam is back on the path to sustained long-term development, with much better prospects than many of its neighbours.

Olivier Do Ngoc and fellow panelists discussing the Vietnamese Real Estate Market

On June 24th Managing Partner Olivier Do Ngoc joined fellow panelists from Savills, Prudential Property Investment Management, VinaCapital, Dragon Capital and Jen Capital Advisors to discuss the current and future Vietnamese real estate market.

Overall, Olivier felt that the panel was very upbeat and positive about the medium term prospects for the Vietnamese property market. Although Vietnam is still a market in its infancy characterized by a lack of transparency and reliable data points growing domestic demand will drive the market forward. Recently Local Developers have become increasingly active in the market with involvement in many current developments.

As the market continues to develop, residential, hospitality (including resorts) and retail will be the most important sectors. Most of the funds in Vietnam are still anticipating a gross return of 25-30%. The panel also discussed the fact that there is still a strong correlation between the property market, stock market and gold market in Vietnam.

Vietnam

With the glorious Perfume Pagoda complex in the mountains and the smell of spring blossoms in the air, Vietnam enthrals with its natural beauty. It’s also a food lover’s paradise (snake is a common appetiser); even the simplest pho is delicious. A rich and turbulent history makes it a great destination for those on the lookout for a story.

Best time to visit
October through March, except the two weeks around Tet (Lunar New Year), which falls at the end of January/beginning of February, when the whole country practically shuts down and everyone goes home to visit their families.

Stay At
PARK HYATT, Saigon
One of the best hotels in Ho Chi Minh, it’s luxurious and ultra-modern. Black is dominant in the decor, but set off by beautiful traditional Vietnamese paintings. (Tel: 0084-8-38241234; www.saigon.park.hyatt.com)
SOFITEL METROPOLE, Hanoi
Wooden fans whirr softly overhead at this traditional yet luxe getaway. It’s a historical gem with tales to tell— built in 1901, it has served as a base both for armies as well as for various heads of state and embassy officials over the years. Jane Fonda and Joan Baez took cover in a bomb shelter once. (Tel: 0084-4-38266919; www.sofitel.com)

Nightlife
In Ho Chi Minh, try Q Bar— it’s the city’s most stylish, where expats and fashionistas rub shoulders. Head to Rex Hotel’s Rooftop Bar for awesome views of the city from three different levels.

Don’t miss
Visiting the Forbidden City in the Citadel in Hue and the Emperors’ tombs. Finish off with a boat ride in Halong Bay– a blue bay with 1,000 mountain peaks.

Must-buys
Art, especially paintings of monks and figures with their backs to the viewer; old, stylized Communist propoganda posters and memorabilia; wood furniture; and cool ‘reproduction’ watches in shops near Binh Thanh Market

INPUTS FROM ANAMITRA DEB, MAXWELL FEDERBUSH, NISHITA SHAH AND PARAMJIT SINGH

PDF of the Vogue India May 2009 Article About Vietnam

PDF Overview of Asia Real Estate Investment Conference 2009